Crisp the bacon. In a large pot or Dutch oven over medium heat, cook chopped bacon until crispy.
Transfer to a paper towel–lined plate. Leave about 2 tablespoons of the bacon fat in the pot, discarding the rest.
Brown the beef. Add ground beef to the pot. Season with salt and pepper.
Cook, breaking it up, until browned. Drain excess fat if needed, leaving about 1 tablespoon in the pot.
Sauté the aromatics. Add butter, diced onion, carrots, and celery. Cook 4–5 minutes until softened.
Stir in garlic and cook 30 seconds until fragrant.
Build the base. Sprinkle flour over the mixture and stir for 1 minute to cook off the raw taste. Add smoked paprika and thyme. Pour in Worcestershire and broth while whisking to avoid lumps.
Add potatoes and simmer. Stir in peeled, diced potatoes and the bay leaf.
Bring to a simmer, cover partially, and cook 12–15 minutes until potatoes are tender but not falling apart. Stir occasionally so nothing sticks.
Creamy finish. Reduce heat to low. Stir in milk or half-and-half and heavy cream.
Warm gently; don’t boil. Remove the bay leaf.
Cheesy and loaded. Off the heat, stir in shredded cheddar until melted and smooth. Add a dollop of sour cream and mix until creamy.
Taste and adjust salt and pepper. If you want more “burger” notes, add a splash of Worcestershire or a tiny bit of mustard.
Serve and top. Ladle into bowls. Top with crispy bacon, extra cheddar, and sliced scallions or chives.
Add hot sauce if you like some heat.